Wednesday, August 04, 2004

Road to the White House Again Runs Through Florida

There are a handful of states that can be considered true "battleground" states in the 2004 presidential election. These include Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio, and West Virginia. In the latest Zogby poll, Kerry leads in Iowa and West Virginia, and Bush leads in the others.

However, it is clear that Florida will again play the biggest role in determining who will win this election. With 27 electoral votes, Florida carries only 1 less vote than Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, and West Virginia combined.

Take a look at this map for an interactive view of this race. USANow's analysis boils down to this:

  • Bush must win both Florida and Ohio to win this race.
  • In addition to these two states, Bush must win either Nevada or West Virginia.
In the latest Zogby poll, Bush leads in Ohio and Nevada. However, Kerry came out on top in Florida with a 2.8% spread over Bush.

Between now and the Republican National Convention, the Bush team better work overtime crafting a message that energizes Florida Republicans. Just like 2000, every Floridian vote is crucial.

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